Keeping the target 1.5°C possible? Need 11 TW renewable by 2030
Target 1.5°C: the EU Joint Research Centre traces the path
The planet is not well. With current policies global emissions are set to peak in this decade, then drop to 2017 levels by 2030 and lead to a rise in the earth’s temperature of 3°C by 2100. With all the catastrophic consequences associated with such a rise. Yet keeping the target of 1.5 ºC – in terms of maximum temperature growth – is still possible.
According to the Global Energy and Climate Outlook, 2023 report of the EU Science Pole, the road to success is for energy efficiency rates to double and for renewable energy to reach 11 TW by 2030. This will significantly increase expenditure on clean technologies. For precision the scenario set on the maintenance of the objective of 1.5°C is previewed annual investments grow 6 times from 2022 to 2030, passing from 1.000 billion current dollars to 5.700 billion at the end of the decade.
The economic attention changes with the change of the interested segment. For example, annual investments in batteries for electric vehicles will have to increase by 14 times by 2030, representing the largest expenditure in the field of clean technologies. The result of this effort? The number of devices on the 2030 market is twenty-nine times higher than today and a 60% reduction in battery costs for the same year.
Annual investments in renewable electricity generation technologies will have to multiply by two from 2022 to 2030. In detail, the new annual offshore and on-shore wind energy capacities will have to grow by 8 and 2 times, respectively, while unit costs will be reduced by 16% and 20%. The total installed capacity of photovoltaics will increase by 270%, offset by a decrease in unit costs of 35%.
In the target 1.5°C scenario, investments in hydrogen and hydrogen-derived fuels (electronic fuels and ammonia) account for about a quarter of total investments in clean technologies by 2050. “Despite their lower role in aggregate final energy consumption – writes the scientific pole – are crucial for the decarbonization of specific sectors such as aviation, maritime transport, steel production and replacement of grey hydrogen in fertilizer production“.
