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No G20 country is in line with Paris Agreement commitments

The gap between promises and facts is making the Paris Agreement an empty box

– The Paris Agreement has remained a dead letter for all the G20 countries. The bitter conclusion is this, in the light of the data released by the Climate Action Tracker during this COP28. No country among the 20 gathered in the prestigious “club” has so far adopted policies consistent to limit global warming to 1.5°C. The same goes for commitments aimed at achieving the “right share” (fair share) of emission reduction.

Climate Action Tracker looked at each country for its “fair” contribution to the effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Eight G20 countries – Argentina, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Turkey, Canada, Mexico and Indonesia – are classified as “critically insufficient“. If we all did what they did, global warming would reach 4 °C at the end of the century compared to pre-industrial levels.

Large countries such as China, Brazil, Australia, the EU and the UK are no exception. The Climate Action Tracker puts them in the group of “highly insufficient”. This means that their policies and commitments are not consistent with the 1.5°C target if their historical emissions are taken into account. China is by far the largest individual emitter in the G20. Brazil is a special observer because if the amount of forests felled has decreased significantly since the election of Lula, the country is still a major producer of fossil fuels and has a highly polluting agricultural sector. The government also plans to organize an auction for the lots to be allocated to drilling in ecologically sensitive areas at the end of December.

Better, but not well, the report card for the United States, Japan, South Africa, Germany and India. All are considered “insufficient” in the analysis of Climate Action Tracker. Their emissions will not go down fast enough to prevent a global warming of more than 1.5°C. Emissions from Indonesia and India will indeed increase, but analysts say it is to some extent justified by the fair distribution of allowances. According to Leonardo Nascimento, researcher of the Climate Action Tracker, “the world is well on its way to a disastrous warming of 3ºC by the end of the century. This is an improvement compared to 10 years ago, but remains drastically insufficient to ensure a viable future for future generations“.

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