At least 400 million too many endothermic vehicles will be sold in the coming years
(sustainabilityenvironment.com) – In the coming years, the world’s largest automobile brands will produce hundreds of millions more endothermic vehicles that are compatible with 1.5 degrees. Their industrial plans are in fact completely misaligned by the need of combating the climate crisis. Despite the fact that in regions like Europe it is passing the stop to the sale of diesel cars and gasoline in 2035. This is supported by a report prepared by the University of Technology Sydney, the University of Applied Sciences of the Industry in Bergisch Gladbach and the German branch of Greenpeace.
To calculate the trajectory of the automotive industry, the report estimates the carbon budget that is available for automotive brands. Based on a model from the University of Sydney, the total amount of CO2 before exceeding the most ambitious target in Paris is 53 billion tons (Gt), on a global budget of 400 Gt which, according to the IPCC, gives 67% chance to stay below 1.5 °C.
Translated into the number of endothermic vehicles, this figure is equivalent to about 315 million internal combustion cars. But the brands, in the coming years, expect to sell between 645 and 778 million cars. More than 400 million cars and 98-116 Gt too.
“To decarbonize road transport by 2050, and considering the limited number of endothermic vehicles that can still be sold, automakers must phase out the production of diesel and petrol light commercial vehicles by 2030″ the report say.
The slowness in the transition from ICE engines to electric motors is the main cause of the potential emergence of a bubble of endothermic vehicles, the authors suggest. The phasing-out of the internal combustion engine and the complete electrification of sales of light commercial vehicles is already necessary by 2030. “However, the plans of the industry – at least those of traditional manufacturers such as Volkswagen, Toyota, Hyundai/Kia and GM – predict only 52% of battery electric vehicle sales by 2030,” the report calculates.